International Trade Bulletin — May 6, 2025

Record U.S. Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services surged to $140.5 billion in March 2025, a 14% increase from February, as businesses accelerated imports ahead of sweeping tariffs introduced by President Trump.

UK–India Free Trade Agreement

After more than three years of negotiations, the United Kingdom and India signed a landmark free trade agreement on May 6. The pact reduces tariffs on goods ranging from automobiles to whisky and is projected to boost bilateral trade by $34 billion annually by 2040.

U.S.–China Negotiation Signals

President Trump stated that China is “evaluating” U.S. proposals to resume discussions aimed at ending mutual tariffs. Beijing, while open to talks, cautioned against any form of coercion in the negotiation process.

Southeast Asia Growth Headwinds

Key ASEAN exporters are bracing for slower expansion: Malaysia’s Trade Minister forecasts export growth slowing to 5.2% in 2025 under the threat of a 24% U.S. tariff, and Thailand’s central bank has cut its 2025 GDP forecast to 2.0% amid tariff‑driven risks.

EU’s Stand on U.S. Tariffs

The European Union declared it will not accept an unfair tariff arrangement and is preparing to impose up to €100 billion in retaliatory duties on U.S. goods, covering sectors from steel and aluminum to autos, should negotiations fail by the end of the pause period.

Global M&A Doldrums

April 2025 saw global mergers and acquisitions activity fall to its lowest level since February 2005, with total deal value dropping 54% month‑on‑month, as policy uncertainty and tariff volatility prompt dealmakers to delay transactions.

These contrasting developments—from record deficits and major FTAs to stalled M&A—highlight the complex web of opportunities and challenges in today’s international trade environment.