International Trade Bulletin — May 3, 2025

1. WTO Revises Global Trade Outlook

The World Trade Organization has cut its forecast, now expecting a 0.2% contraction in global merchandise trade in 2025. It cautions that if tariff disputes escalate further—especially after the latest U.S. measures—the decline could reach 1.5%.

2. China’s Export Momentum Under Pressure

Despite a robust 6.9% year‑on‑year export growth in the first quarter, April’s data show a sharp drop in Chinese export orders. Analysts attribute this slowdown to recent U.S. tariff hikes, raising questions about the long‑term viability of China’s export‑centric strategy.

3. Vietnam–United States Trade Dialogue

Facing a potential 46% reciprocal tariff, Vietnam has launched negotiations with the U.S. While Washington has postponed implementation until July, Hanoi is actively pursuing a deal to protect its export‑driven economy from severe tariff shocks.

4. Financial Markets and Sovereign Risk

Global markets are experiencing heightened volatility as concerns mount over rising sovereign debt and the prospect of a worldwide economic slowdown. The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report highlights these vulnerabilities and urges policymakers to enhance financial resilience.

5. Red Sea Route Disruptions

Ongoing security issues in the Red Sea have forced many cargo vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transit times and shipping costs. This shift is disrupting supply chains, particularly between Asian and European markets.